Brasil Pack Trends 2020

BrasilPackTrends2020 46 fatores que influenciam o mercado de bens de consumo Table 2.1 Projections of Brazilian population growth Population 2010 2020 2030 2040 Total 193.252.604 207.143.243 216.410.030 215.287.463 Growth rate 7,2% 12,0% 11,4% 0 to 14 years old 49.439.452 41.571.334 36.761.006 28.306.952 Growth rate -15,9% -25,6% -42,7% 15 to 24 years old 33.644.014 33.856.048 28.713.078 22.507.190 Growth rate 0,6% -14,7% -33,1% 15 to 64 years old 130.619.449 146.447.173 150.795.092 138.081.864 Growth rate 12,1% 15,4% 5,7% 65 years old or above 13.193.703 19.124.736 28.853.932 48.898.647 Growth rate 45,0% 118,7% 270,6% 70 years old or above 8.612.707 12.220.408 18.679.185 34.328.890 Growth rate 41,9% 116,9% 298,6% 75 years old or above 5.026.875 7.309.457 11.064.331 22.659.940 Growth rate 45,4% 120,1% 350,8% 80 years old or above 2.653.060 4.005.531 5.912.229 13.748.708 Growth rate 51,0% 122,8% 418,2% Source: IBGE, 2008) On the other hand, the Brazilian economy will suffer a strong influence of the growth of the population aged over 55 years, and especially with the increase in the number of elderly people in long term. For example, the population over 75 years, which is expected to grow 45.4% between 2010 and 2020, will increase more than four times by 2050. The aging factor has been the subject of several studies, because it is manifested in several countries. The aging factor brings challenges in the areas of public health and social security, among others. On the other hand, it has created opportunities for, once the productive sector is emerging as a market for seniors with higher purchasing power, with very particular preferences. For example, a Canadian study (OLIVEIRA, 2003) identified needs to suit food products in front of an aging population: smaller portions, reducing the weight of packages, packages easy to open and manipulate, with labels showing clear indications on ingredients and consumption restrictions for this age group. Demographic bonus It is estimated that there will be a very favorable situation for the country, due to the growth of the track in which the economically active population is, which is expected to remain superior than the economically dependent group until 2025 (Picture 2.2). This condition, characterized as demographic bonus, is considered a window of opportunities for socioeconomical development. So, in the next two decades there will be a very favorable condition to increase the Brazilian families’ consumption. At the same time, the aging of the population will be a progressive increase in the dependency relationship between the elderly and the economically active population (Table 2.2), ranging from 10.10% (2010) to 35.41% in 2050 (IBGE, 2008).