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Brasil
PackTrends
2020
46
fatores que influenciam o mercado de bens de consumo
Table 2.1
Projections of Brazilian population growth
Population
2010
2020
2030
2040
Total
193.252.604
207.143.243
216.410.030
215.287.463
Growth rate
7,2%
12,0%
11,4%
0 to 14 years old
49.439.452
41.571.334
36.761.006
28.306.952
Growth rate
-15,9%
-25,6%
-42,7%
15 to 24 years old
33.644.014
33.856.048
28.713.078
22.507.190
Growth rate
0,6%
-14,7%
-33,1%
15 to 64 years old
130.619.449
146.447.173
150.795.092
138.081.864
Growth rate
12,1%
15,4%
5,7%
65 years old or above
13.193.703
19.124.736
28.853.932
48.898.647
Growth rate
45,0%
118,7%
270,6%
70 years old or above
8.612.707
12.220.408
18.679.185
34.328.890
Growth rate
41,9%
116,9%
298,6%
75 years old or above
5.026.875
7.309.457
11.064.331
22.659.940
Growth rate
45,4%
120,1%
350,8%
80 years old or above
2.653.060
4.005.531
5.912.229
13.748.708
Growth rate
51,0%
122,8%
418,2%
Source: IBGE, 2008)
On the other hand, the Brazilian economy will
suffer a strong influence of the growth of the population
aged over 55 years, and especially with the increase in
the number of elderly people in long term. For example,
the population over 75 years, which is expected to grow
45.4% between 2010 and 2020, will increase more
than four times by 2050.
The aging factor has been the subject of several
studies, because it is manifested in several countries.
The aging factor brings challenges in the areas of
public health and social security, among others. On the
other hand, it has created opportunities for, once the
productive sector is emerging as a market for seniors
with higher purchasing power, with very particular
preferences. For example, a Canadian study (OLIVEIRA,
2003) identified needs to suit food products in front of an
aging population: smaller portions, reducing the weight
of packages, packages easy to open and manipulate,
with labels showing clear indications on ingredients and
consumption restrictions for this age group.
Demographic bonus
It is estimated that there will be a very favorable
situation for the country, due to the growth of the
track in which the economically active population
is, which is expected to remain superior than the
economically dependent group until 2025 (Picture
2.2). This condition, characterized as demographic
bonus, is considered a window of opportunities for
socioeconomical development. So, in the next two
decades there will be a very favorable condition to
increase the Brazilian families’ consumption.
At the same time, the aging of the population
will be a progressive increase in the dependency
relationship between the elderly and the economically
active population (Table 2.2), ranging from 10.10%
(2010) to 35.41% in 2050 (IBGE, 2008).